(1) Introduction, Forecast, War Map & Mindset

(1) Introduction, Forecast, War Map & Mindset

1. Black Friday 2025: Trends and Forecast
2. Full War Map: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan
3. Black Friday Mindset

Black Friday 2025: Trends and Forecast

Shopify-only total revenue in the 4 days of BFCM:
2019: $2.9B

2020: $5.1B

2021: $6.3B

2022: $7.5B

2023: $9.3B

2024: $11.5B (Last year I said “will pass the $10B”)

2025: Will pass the $12B

BFCM 2024 Insights from Shopify

📈 $11.5 billion in global sales from merchants, +24% from 2023

🎉 76+ million consumers worldwide bought from Shopify brands

🛒 Average cart price: $108.56 ($109.70 on a constant currency basis)

🌎 Top selling countries: US, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany

🏙️ Top selling cities: LA, MIA, LDN, SF

🕜 Peak sales per minute: 12:01 PM EST on Black Friday ($4.6M revenue per minute)

MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT

U.S. consumer confidence (Michigan):

EU consumer confidence:

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index = –14.9

This signals that pessimists outnumber optimists about the economy and their personal finances.

“EU sentiment at –14.9 = a cautious consumer mindset. Buyers still want to spend — but only with brands they trust and offers that feel smart, not impulsive.”

Measured differently, but same emotional zone.

Not recession panic but buyer caution.

Defensive spending, low confidence, deal-sensitivity.

BUT:

The money printing part is still going hard !!!!

If liquidity increases, both investors and later consumers are willing to take more risks.

Things to look for the next 60 days:

Check Google Trends:

• “Black Friday”
• “Black Friday Discounts”
• Best Black Friday deals 2025

If you’re interested on predicting a lot,

We can further work in this document

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iY3ap4ipOircCIjpRRVYFgeI8OR1b1fg/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=113281374019907902968&rtpof=true&sd=true

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Conclusion:

If by the end of October, mid November we see negative economic data in general → Consumer will concentrate spending in the 96h of BFCM.

But if we see positive economic momentum, consumers are expected to start spending more on “early black friday”.

Full War Map: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan

Summary:

October:

• Black Friday Mastermind
• Find your winter 2025 winning ad creatives
  (September messaging is not valid anymore, back to school, back in business, routine, new wardrobe, …)
• Audience Building Efforts (more later)
• Figure out the Andromeda Algorithm for your ad account
• Start designing the ad creatives, UGC creators, shootings, …
• If relevant → 4-day Halloween Flash Sale
• Offer → Anything needs to be stocked or do you need to build new bundles and put them live? Free gift? Giveaway?

Amazon Prime Days: October 7-8th

Capitalize on the October Salary

• From October 30th to November 5th
• US: payday every 15 days
• ES: end of the month,first 5 days

CPM and CTR tend to increase September vs October:

November:

• Capitalize on the October Salary

From October 30th to November 5th

• November 1st-November 20th: Audience Building
• November 11th: Single’s Day
• Some type of Early Access VIP
• November 21st: Forgotten Friday (the real start)
  According to Meta: one of the highest conversion rate days of the year, with low competition
• *Launch Christmas Ads
• November 24-27th: Black Week
• November 28th: Black Friday
• November 29-30th: Black Weekend
• December 1st: Cyber Monday

December:

• Christmas ads were already launched, you can add more by December 2nd
• Dec 1st - Dec 15th: Black Friday Extended -50%
  (or launch it on November 27th, fill it with purchases and scale it in December)
• Switch messaging to gifting
• RETARGETING MAX → You bought a lot of traffic BFCM
• Boxing Day (December 26th)
• New Year Sale

January:

• Q1 Workshop
• Low CPMs, low conversion rate
  
• Continue the New Year Sale
• Winter Sales
  
• Change messaging to “new year new me”

BLACK FRIDAY CAMPAIGN STRUCTURE

Strategy 1 (aggressive drop, COD):

• Full month with Black Friday ads
• Full month with countdowns in the website
• 3 emails per week every week of the month

(More aggressive emails BFCM)

• Nov 24th-Dec 1st = Black Friday Last Hours
• Nov 29th - December 15th: Extended Black Friday

Strategy 2:

• Nov 1st - Nov 15th: Audience Building
• Nov 15th-Nov 21st: Early Black Friday (open)
• Nov 21st - Dec 1st: Black Friday

Strategy 3 (brand):

• Nov 1st - Nov 15th: Audience Building
• Nov 15th: (real) Early VIP Black Friday Access
• Nov 16th - Nov 21st: Early Black Friday
• Nov 21st - Dec 1st: Black Friday

Strategy 4 (brand):

• Nov 1st - Nov 18th: Audience Building
• Nov 19th - Nov 21st: (real) Early VIP Black Friday Access
• Nov 21st - Dec 1st: Black Friday

Your Ads:

UGC Videos

• "Must buy for Black Friday 2025"
• "Top 5 Best XMAS Presents"

Article-Style Images

• "Top 7 Products for Black Friday 2025"
• “Best Shoes to Buy on Black Friday”
• "Why (your product) is the Best XMAS Gift"

Review-Style Images

• Tik Tok comment: “Finally on sale, time to buyyyy”
• 5-star reviews: “My favorite magnesium, can’t wait for Black Friday to restock !!”

Ads that look like recommendations.

Black Friday Mindset

Black Friday is the MOST competitive moment of the year in eCommerce.

It’s going to be bloody, as every single year.

And we cannot be passive, slow or just observers.

Many people have been preparing since September.

Many brands will hit their first million dollar month.

Many brands will hit their first million dollar day.

So again, it’s going to be hyper competitive.

So we need to be hyper prepared.

RULES

• Speed of implementation over everything
• Stack successful actions: 1 ad will not save you;; good organic, amazing meta ads, wave surfing intraday, lots of email marketing, working on your offer, audience building, … All of this together will compound into a record-breaking Black Friday.
• Beat your competition: yes, focus on your competitors. I don’t care. If they have way better ads, they will beat you. If they overbid and diversify, they will get lower CPMs than you. If their offer is 10x better, they will get the conversion that you started.
• Set clear targets: BF can surprise you. You might shoot for $30k and end up making $50k. But still, you NEED to set targets. This will justify the extra effort you’re about to make.
• What if something fails?

Be ready to react: Huge CPMs, no ROAS, low AOV, …
Or what if your store goes down?

• BFCM and sleep
  No need to sleep 8h during the most important four days of the year. Not even during November 21st to December 30th.
  
  Example: to test “wave surfing” the weeks before Black Friday, I stay up until 1am scaling and downscaling in the USA (different time zone). But this extra effort, allows me to wave surf with confidence during the 4 days of BFCM.
  

BFCM Visualizer:

https://www.canva.com/design/DAG1IO0NDRw/fQ_ZhV1NJPdVBXgOSmHkeA/edit?utm_content=DAG1IO0NDRw&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link2&utm_source=sharebutton

Customizable Shopify screenshots,

Make your personal one.

Put it in your brain at a frequency of 20.

Watch it as many times as possible.

The simple hack is to normalize your goal.

Get familiar with it.

Either print it,

Or put it as your screensaver,

Whatever you want to do,

My biggest advice is to get familiar with your revenue goal.

*You can do the same with an ads manager screenshot.

If any of you wants to go deeper into this topics, visualization, etc. in a practical way:

Books:

• Psycho-Cybernetics by Maxwell Maltz
• The Power of Awareness by Neville Goddard
• The Power of Your Subconscious Mind by Joseph Murphy
• Feeling is the Secret by Neville Goddard

Or just watch Youtube summaries and use Chat GPT to make tangible exercises.