1-6: Quarter 1 Context and Planning

1-6: Quarter 1 Context and Planning

1. Quarter 1 Intro
2. Quarter 1 2026 vs Quarter 1 2025
3. Quarter 1 2026 vs Quarter 4 2025
4. Q1 Historical Metrics
5. Q1 Consumer Behavior
6. Q1 Macroeconomic Context
7. Q1 Full Strategy

Quarter 1 Intro

Months: January, February, March

We enter this new quarter having closed Q4.

Q4 momentum will help us keep pushing during Q1, but the metrics and the market change A LOT.

We come from buying A LOT of traffic in November and December: 90% of this traffic has NOT converted yet.

And we have acquired A LOT of NEW customers, some of them will buy again during Q1.

This means,

• We expect different metrics
• But we can benefit from the work done in Q4

3 market forces will collide at the same time:

1. A post-holiday consumer with less liquidity but eager to make lifestyle changes as it’s the new year
2. A more selective Meta algorithm (Andromeda)
3. A different macroeconomic context to Q3 and Q4 of 2025

So,

• January → Volatility and reset with cheap traffic
• February → Short month, transitional month
• March → First real scaling signals

The most important thing at the beginning of January is to reflect on what happened in 2025 and set targets and forecasts for 2026.

And it’s key to pick 1 project and FOCUS for the whole year.

3 things to plan:

1. Revenue targets by quarter (demand peaks and lows)
2. Ad creatives plan for the year (when to produce what)
3. New projects for 2026, new fronts to be opened
   → Funnel expansion
   → Geographic Expansion
   → Product Expansion
   → Creative Expansion
   → Audience Expansion
   → ReBrandings
   

Quarter 1 2026 vs Quarter 4 2025

Q4 2025

• Artificial demand (Black Friday, Christmas)
• Urgency + gifting psychology
• Consumers buying now or never
• = High CPMs, high conversion rate

Q1 2026

• Demand is weaker
• No real urgency
• = Low CPMs, low conversion rate

Quarter 1 2026 vs Quarter 1 2025

The first big difference is Andromeda.

We will be advertising under a new algorithm that was not fully launched by January 2025.

We now introduce the concept of “incrementality”.

• What percentage of my sales would NOT happen without Meta?

Q1 Historical Metrics

Meta report, ad spend vs CPM in November, December and January:

2024 Q4 - 2025 Q1:

It’s common sense and we all know it, but the main conclusion is that the CPM goes down.

The question is, “what goes down more aggressively, the CPM or the conversion rate?”

Q1 Macroeconomic Context

1. Liquidity Is Back
   Central banks have effectively restarted liquidity injections
   

2. Consumer Sentiment is coming back up
   
   Compared to the April-May lows and November low, it seems to be increasing, we will pay attention and see.
   
3. Wars & Geopolitical noise
   Russia Ukraine
   Palestine Israel
   USA Venezuela
   China Taiwan
   
   
   
   
   
   
4. Clear Pattern
   
   
   
   Worst months of 2025 in eCommerce?
   March, April, May
   November (not that is bad, but not much better than 2024)
   
   

Q1 Consumer Behavior

1. Less Urgency
2. Longer research and comparison cycles
3. Higher price sensitivity
4. Risk avoidance -> the need for trust and familiarity
   

January: Reset, reflection, self-improvement, new goals…

February: Restabilization of personal finances

March: First return of intent

There is a constant curiosity and adoption state, but the final conversion is tough.

We can get a lot more traffic, cheaper traffic in Q1. Users are looking a lot, seeing what their new personality needs. Seeing if they change something in their home, in their habits, in their fashion, …

Logic can beat emotions. Users are colder, “do I really need this now?”

In a minute we will see how to adapt and play with this.

Q1 Full Strategy

1. Reset expectations
   Q1 is not Q4.
   Judge performance against Q1 realities, not holiday peaks.
   Judge performance in windows (3 days) instead of daily.
   
2. Switch the messaging
   From emotional to logical.
   From BFCM, Christmas, Holidays to “New Year, New Me”
   
3. Run a Flash Campaign to pump demand
   The easiest way to have a big Q1 is to run flash campaigns and discounts. I know we have all been running many discounts, offers and promotional campaigns. But it’s the way.
   
4. Protect your revenue with retargeting (Demand Capturing)
   We have bought a lot of traffic in Q4 (90% didn’t convert)
   We have acquired a lot of new customers in Q4.
   
5. Create new demand (Demand Creation)
   As the user is more selective and logical, and the buying cycle is longer, we expect users to react positively to educational content or educational funnels.
   
   Demand creation can also be done through lead generation campaigns (very cheap CPL !!)
   
   
   
   
   
6. Be strategic in your scaling
   Scaling during your historical best day of the week makes a lot of sense now. We avoid unnecessary risks.
   
7. Develop new projects
   → Funnel expansion

→ Geographic Expansion

→ Product Expansion

→ Creative Expansion

→ Audience Expansion

→ ReBrandings

Remember that traffic now is the cheapest it will be in the year, and demand will peak again in March.

Therefore, for example, testing a new funnel (advertorial) is fantastic in Q1, because you can get statistical significant data in less time, compared to Q4.