7 - Simulations and Practical Cases: Decision Making

Q4 2026 WORKSHOP - DAY 2

Simulations and Practical Cases: Decision Making

**The most important is to prepare your capacity to spend before BFCM. When Friday arrives, it’s just vertically scaling, nothing else.

It will be more or less profitable, more or less scalable, based on the previous work we’ve done and of course, the demand of the market.

Case 1:

• Evergreen ad spend: $100-$500/day
• Black Friday ad spend goal: $1,000/day

• No need to work hourly, not enough data
• Work in 3 to 4-hour windows
  Window 1: 12am-9am
  Window 2: 9am-12pm
  Window 3: 12pm-3pm
  (...)
  
• Proportional ad spend:
  $200 per day is $10/20 per hour
  When you double the budget, you’re at $20-40/hour,
  It will take 3 hours for this change to have consequences

• Order of scaling
  Evergreen: $250
  Black Week: Get to $400/day

Thursday: $600/day
Friday 27th: $1,000/day

• Choose if you will take a big risk in the morning or in the afternoon. If your mornings are historically the best, 6am to 3pm is your moment.
  
  After 3pm, relax and protect the big profits.
  
  6am: Scaling 1
  9am: Scaling 2 - push
  12pm: Review
  3pm: Small downscaling
  6pm: Last review and cut budgets
  
  
  

Case 2:

• Evergreen ad spend: $500-$1,000/day
• Black Friday ad spend goal: $2-5,000/day

• Hourly ad spend will go from $40 to $250
  
• You need to practise!
• Get to $100/h many times and see what happens, what breaks, …

• My advice is to check hourly, especially during your most important hours.
  And make changes every 2h.
  
  Example
  7am-12pm: Chill
  12pm: First push
  3pm: Second push
  5pm: Big push

7pm: Big push

9pm: adjust
12pm: Downscale, sleep

• Big balls: On some hours you’ll need to have CBOs at 5k or 10k daily budget → Only for some hours to maximize the spend, otherwise meta will not react to small increments
  

Case 3: Spending 2-5k evergreen, BFCM 10k

• Evergreen ad spend: $2-5,000/day
• Black Friday ad spend goal: $10,000/day

• Hourly ad spend will go from $160 to $500

• Start strong since Friday 7am (remember my mistake)
• Don’t get delayed and lose 5 hours, it will force you to overspend later and it’s not good
  
• Practice a lot
• Here you need to be a horizontal scaling octopus
  
  I cover lots of angles, avatars, concepts, formats, …
  I cover different bidding types,
  I have reach retargeting and purchase retargeting
  

• Thursday 2k
• Forgotten Friday: 4k
• Saturday 4k
• Sunday 3k
• Monday 2k
• Tuesday 2k
• Wednesday 3k (ads manager ROAS 2.01)
• Thursday 5k (ads manager ROAS 1.9)
• Friday 10k (ads manager ROAS 2.5)
• Saturday 7k
• Sunday 8k
• Monday 9.5k

• Also big balls here, at some point you’ll have CBOs at 10k or 20k daily budget